Forecast Insight For Thursday, October 15, 2009

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today began with a batch of showers skirting through the tri-state. For those who are asking, “what rain?” I’m referring to the showers that moved through before many people north of, or near, the Ohio River were even awake. Luckily, for those who are a bit waterlogged, the rest of the day is looking dry, but there is enough low level moisture in place to maintain a deck of low clouds throughout the remainder of our Thursday. Further, a northerly wind will work with the clouds to limit daytime heating, and most areas shouldn’t expect to see a temperature much warmer than the lower to mid 50’s for this afternoon. In fact, if some areas don’t get out of the upper 40’s, that wouldn’t be surprising either. The normal high temperature for today in Evansville is 71 degrees. Also, the record low high temperature for today is 52 according the NWS Paducah website.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: North-northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight we will maintain our cloud cover, but a northerly breeze will force the temperature down close to 40 degrees. Rain is not expected for the overnight hours.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: North-northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow another upper level wave will come sweeping down from the northwest resulting in a continuation of the overcast skies along with a small chance of scattered showers. There is a 20% chance of precipitation for Friday. Shower activity will be very spotty throughout the day. Temperatures will struggle to rise again tomorrow due to three factors. A northerly wind will continue to force in cooler air, and an overcast sky that will last all day will limit solar heating for a fourth consecutive day. The third factor is the reinforcing shot of cooler air associated with the upper level wave sweeping down into, and through, the tri-state over the course of our Friday. A pronounced upper level trough will set up over the Midwest and Northeast Friday night into Saturday resulting in another cool day for Saturday as well. The record low high temperature for Friday in Evansville is 44 degrees. While I think we see the temperature get above that mark, it should be a fairly close call easily within 5 degrees.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: North-northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.