Forecast Insight For Friday, October 16, 2009

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today is going to be just more of the same with the cloudy skies and very cool, daytime air mass. A broad trough stationed over the eastern Untied States is blanketing that portion of the country with temperatures that are anywhere from 10 to 25 degrees below normal. Here we’re looking at daytime highs on the order of 15 to 25 degrees below normal as the normal high for October 16^th in Evansville is 70 degrees. Winds will also generally be out of the north throughout the day suppressing the heating during the morning and afternoon hours. There is an upper level wave that will be passing through the tri-state that may help to induce a few isolated showers and drizzle for today, thus there is a 20% chance of precipitation for your Friday. Most folks will be staying dry, and this evening’s high school football games shouldn’t be too muddy.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: North-northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight we will continue to wrestle with low clouds as the northerly winds will push the temperature down into the lower 40’s. That said, the forecast low for Thursday night was 40 degrees, and we only got down to 44 degrees at the Evansville airport. This can almost entirely be attributed to the cloud cover having a greater than anticipated effect at keeping the temperature elevated. Since tonight should be overcast as well, a low temperature closer to 43 shouldn’t come as a surprise. A low temperature closer to 37 actually would be a bit surprising.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: North winds at 4 to 8 mph…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow we will continue with the overcast skies as an upper level trough remains draped over the entire viewing area. Showers are not expected for tomorrow, but a bit of temporary mist or drizzle can’t be disqualified. Temperatures will once again have a difficult time rising as the air only a mile above the surface will be around -2 to -5 degrees Celsius translating to a surface temperature somewhere between 45 and 50 degrees when taking the cloud cover into account. The models have refused to reconcile the effects of cloud cover and a cooling wind throughout the week, and the modeled highs of 54 will not, I repeat with 99.9% confidence, will not, be reached.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: North-northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.