Forecast Insight For Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today is starting fairly well, albeit seasonably cool, with mostly sunny skies as high pressure centered to our east continues to assert its influence on the tri-state. As we go through the rest of the morning and through the PM hours, high clouds will gradually increase and thicken to the point that it will turn into a mostly cloudy day. In fact, by 9:30am CDT in Evansville, the sky already appeared to be mostly cloudy with a thin film of high clouds. This is an indicator that sunshine will be more limited than originally expected and forecast high temperatures may need to be adjusted downwards for the noon newscast. The clouds can be attributed to an approaching storm system to our south and west. Despite the increase in clouds, rain is not a concern for today, and, overall, Wednesday will turn out to be our last pleasant comfortable day until next week. Sunday could turn into a decent day, but the jury is still out on how warm Sunday will actually be (50’s or 60’s).

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: South winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight we will maintain overcast skies and the cloud deck will likely thicken as the night goes on. Weather conditions should remain dry for the first half of the overnight, but some showers could start to build into the western portions of the viewing area late. There is a 20% chance of precipitation for Wednesday night. Temperatures tonight will bottom out at milder levels that what we’ve seen for the last few nights, mainly due to the cloud cover helping to preserve some heat at the surface. While my forecast low is 52, I’m not comfortable with it as I believe the cloud cover will have a greater influence in keeping the mercury up late tonight, and I’m considering raising it to 54 for the noon newscast.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: South-southeast winds at about 3 mph… Otherwise, expect calm winds…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow, if the rain hasn’t already started during the overnight hours, showers and heavier rain squalls will progress into the tri-state from west to east. Some models have been hesitant to bring the rain into the eastern half of the tri-state until after noon, but I’d be surprised if this timing holds up and am leaning towards a faster-than-expected-time-of-arrival for the rain throughout the tri-state. The rain, once it begins, has a very good chance of lasting for several hours. There is an 80% chance of precipitation for your Thursday as the slowest model scenarios keep rain out of the eastern fringes of the tri-state until Thursday evening. Most of the rain will fall before Friday afternoon with just some leftover spotty showers for Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Rainfall totals for this storm will likely fall between 0.50” and 1.50” with locally higher amounts upwards of 2”. Flooding may become a concern as we go into Thursday evening and Thursday night.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: Southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.