Forecast Insight For Thursday, October 22, 2009

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today we’re waiting upon an impressive storm to creep eastward and into the tri-state. This morning began with mostly cloudy skies and few lucky breaks of sunshine, but clouds will fill in completely as we head into the afternoon and as the storm system to our west gets a bit closer. The latest computer guidance is suggesting a slower arrival for the storm system, but I’m still confident that we’ll see rain overspread most, if not all, of the tri-state by sunset. There is an 80% chance of precipitation for your Thursday that would be higher barring the possibility that rain could hold off for the eastern fringes of the tri-state until tonight. Rainfall totals won’t be all that staggering for today because the majority of the precipitation appears to be reserved for tonight. Winds today will be light but noticeable out of the southeast helping to lift the temperature to 65 degrees. The reasoning behind undercutting the modeled high temperatures is the lack of sunshine that’s expected for today, a variable typically not adjusted for enough by computer models.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: Southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight will be when we see the majority of the rainfall from this impending or, if it’s raining in your locale right now, current storm system. Rainfall totals between today and tonight should range on the order of 0.50” and 1.50” with locally up to 2”. It is most likely rainfall totals will fall between 1.00” and 1.50”. With the heavy rain that is expected for tonight, there may also be some thunderstorms entangled within the field of precipitation. Fortunately, should thunderstorms, they will not be severe. There is a 100% chance of precipitation for tonight. Temperatures tonight will get down to only 60 as there will be a sustained southerly flow that will actually amplify later in the night and a cloud deck that will help to preserve some surface heat. Working to cool the air will be the precipitation and the resultant effects stemming from evaporational cooling.

Here’s a link to the forecasted precipitation anticipated through early Friday morning: http://bit.ly/1fkwVe.

The link above is only valid for the day that this blog entry is published for.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: Southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow we’re looking at the rain to still be a threat during the morning hours, but there is a general consensus that the heaviest rain will easily be out of the tri-state by noon on Friday. The skew-T models are showing a lingering deck of low clouds despite a pronounced dry slot building into the tri-state aloft. What this tells me is that tomorrow afternoon and evening will either by overcast or have a mix of sun and clouds. Should the overcast scenario play out, as I think it will, drizzle will be possible, but heavy precipitation is out of the question due to the thin nature of the PM cloud deck along with a lack of forcing mechanisms that would produce anything more than a light shower. There is a 70% chance of precipitation with the best chance of rain in the morning. If the storm system’s trek to the east slows more than what is suggested now some morning thunderstorms are possible, but this chance is minimal (~10%). It’s also important to point out that tomorrow will be a breezy day as a cold front moves through the area.

UPDATE: The latest WRF computer guidance dries us out early in the day Friday with a tiny chance of drizzle and light showers through the morning and afternoon. This would suggest the 70% chance for rain during the day Friday may be too high. I’ll continue to monitor the newest data as it becomes available and revise tomorrow’s rain potential as necessary for the noon newscast.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: Southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with wind gusts up to 25 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.