Forecast Insight For Friday, October 23, 2009

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today we’re beginning the day with the bulk of the heavy precipitation off to the east of the tri-state. There will still be some spotty showers primarily during the morning hours, but there will still be a small chance of drizzle doing through the PM hours. There’s a 30% chance of precipitation for your Friday. A cold front will be moving through the tri-state this morning or early this afternoon helping to lend a hand to our gusty breezes throughout the day and a noticeable cooling trend through the afternoon and evening. Temperatures this afternoon and this evening will be falling through the lower 60’s and the 50’s. The forecast high of 66 will likely take place this morning. Expect a cloudy day through the rest of your Friday, but there is a tiny chance of sunshine late this afternoon or this evening as the dry slot behind the cold front does its best to break up a deck of low clouds.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: West-southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight we will continue to deal with a deck of low clouds, and the forecast, at this point, calls for overcast skies through your Friday night. Rain is unlikely as there’s a 20% chance of precipitation for your Friday night, and any rain that does fall will be light in intensity. The cooling flow out of the west-southwest will continue to drive the temperature down despite the cloudy skies, but the forecasted low in the mid 40’s (some areas, I suspect, will manage to get down closer to 40… but nothing cold enough to produce frost) is seasonable for this time of the year. Winds won’t be as intense as what we see today for tonight, but there will still be a noticeable breeze.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: West-southwest winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow morning there will be a few showers possible early in the day, but for most of us it will just be a cloudy start. There is a 20% chance of showers early Saturday. For others who will be sleeping in Saturday morning, sunshine may be out just in time for some folks as they open their eyes. Right now it’s difficult to get a good idea on the extent of the cloud cover through your Saturday. The latest model data is suggesting we see a mix of sun and low clouds, but prior to today it appeared Saturday would be an overcast day. This latter scenario can not be entirely ruled out, but I typically trust the more recent model output simply because it has more recent data inputted into the modeled outcome. The extent of the cloud cover also makes it difficult to forecast tomorrow’s high temperature. If it stays cloudy tomorrow, a high in the upper 40’s is more likely, but if the sunshine pops out, which is not the expected scenario, temperatures will surge into the lower to mid 50’s. Based on forecasted 850mb temperatures being between 0 and -3 degrees Celsius, I think the modeled high temperatures are a bit too high regardless of the sunshine.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: West-southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.