Forecast Insight For Monday, October 26, 2009

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today a frontal boundary west of the tri-state will creep a bit closer to the viewing area with an emphasis on the word, “creep.” Cloud cover this morning will be mixed with most folks seeing a partly cloudy mix from mid and upper level clouds. Showers were originally in the forecast for the western fringes of the tri-state earlier this morning, but that chance was small and has since been removed from the forecast. Cloud will probably increase gradually through the end of the day, and by this evening it’s more likely that not that the sky will be overcast. Warming today will be driven by a decent amount of solar heating before the sun becomes eclipsed by the clouds and a southerly wind. I am somewhat concerned we fall short of the forecast high due to two factors: the cloud cover could increase quicker than expected limiting the amount of heating we get from the sun and the morning low got down to about 40 meaning we need to heat up 28 degrees with risky sunshine and a light to moderate southerly flow. The heating influences today may not be enough to get the temperature to 68. I’ll see how the temperature is doing at 10 and 11am and get a better idea if we’ll be falling short of the forecast then.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: South winds at 5 to 10 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight will be overcast as the front to our west gets closer to the tri-state. Showers will also become possible, yet unlikely, for the Illinois portion of the viewing area. There is a 20% chance of precipitation for tonight west of the Wabash and north of the Ohio rivers. My forecast high for tonight accounts for the thickening cloud cover which will help to preserve some of the heat at the surface. Winds will be a non-factor for tonight.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: Light and variable breezes… Otherwise, calm winds…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow is a bit of a tricky mess as the model data has been a bit inconsistent with only the GFS model showing an extremely bullish wet trend for the tri-state. Other models also give the tri-state a chance for rain late in the day, but projected rainfall amounts are generally well less than a quarter inch. All of the models have also been trending towards a later arrival in the day with regards to the precipitation. All things considered along with a general trend with the more recent models to keep the tri-state a bit drier, there is a 40% chance of precipitation. The confidence in this forecast is a bit timid given the wide variability in the models for a forecast 36 to 48 hours out. I don’t believe tomorrow will be as warm as expected due to the cloud cover.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: Southeast winds at 3 to 6 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.