Forecast Insight For Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today we can expect rainfall to continue until the bitter end, but rainfall intensity will likely only be light or moderate with a slight possibility for an isolated thunderstorm. There is a 100% chance of precipitation today. The forecast high for today has been chopped down to 56 from 60 since we’ve seen exactly 0 degrees of warming between 8am and noon CDT in Evansville. At noon at the Evansville Regional Airport, the temperature was 53 degrees. Winds will continue to be light today.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: East winds at 4 to 8 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight we will continue to see the showers, but most of the rainfall will wrap up sometime between 10pm and 2am. There could be a heavier squall of rainfall, but for the most part rain will continue to be relatively light. Rainfall amounts from this storm will range between 0.25” and 0.75”. There is an 80% chance of precipitation tonight as there exists the small chance rain will have cleared out of the southern portion of the viewing area by sunset today. Temperatures tonight should bottom out near the 50 degree mark. Even with the rain clearing out before daybreak Wednesday, cloudy skies in the form of low clouds will persist.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: Light and variable breezes… Otherwise, expect calm winds…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow will start overcast or mostly cloudy, but fortunately the temperature will likely be in the 50’s in several areas thanks to the overcast skies overnight. In the rare case that the low clouds break before sunrise, fog will become a concern, so watch out for visibilities early Wednesday morning. That said, fog is far from likely. A forecast with temperatures rising into the mid 60’s tomorrow is contingent upon some sunshine developing later in the day. Without the sun a high temperature closer to 60 becomes more likely. Right now the latest model data gives us a 60/40 chance at see some breaks in the low cloud deck, but the light winds that are forecasted will limit the amount of dry air mixing into the cloud deck. Despite the cloud cover, rain is not expected for Wednesday.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: Winds will start the day generally out of the southwest before shifting to out of the southeast at 3 to 6 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.