Forecast Insight For Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today will start overcast as the storm that brought us 0.87" at the Evansville Regional Airport lifts away to the northeast leaving its wake some low-level moisture. To our south is a pocket of high pressure and drier air that will be pushing north throughout the day. While there isn't a guarantee in place that we'll see clearing before the end of the day, it does appear that the push of drier air in from the south will be enough to at least turn the sky mostly cloudy as opposed to overcast. My primary concern as to why we could stay overcast through the rest of the day has everything to do with the light winds. A light wind at the surface is typically a signal that there will be a limited mixing of dry air into the low cloud deck. If the entire day stays overcast, the high temperature will probably have a difficult time getting out of the 50's despite a light southerly flow and morning low that reached only 53 degrees. On the flip side, if we see sunshine develop later this morning then the high temperature has a better chance of reaching into the mid 60's.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: Winds will start the day generally out of the southwest before shifting to out of the southeast at 3 to 6 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight we will still be under the influence of the pocket of dry air building in from the south today. There will still be a few clouds through the overnight hours, but overcast skies are not expected. Temperatures tonight will be permitted fall down closer to seasonable levels (the normal low for Wednesday morning in Evansville is 40 degrees), but overall I think we're looking at low temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal versus the 10 to 15 degrees above normal marks that we witnessed throughout the viewing area early Wednesday morning. There is a slim chance the skies turn overcast before sunrise early Thursday morning.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: Southeast winds at about 3 mph… Otherwise, expect calm winds…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

It is likely tomorrow will start with some sunshine. The latest models are suggesting mostly sunny or partly sunny skies, but there will be some high clouds increasing early in the day. If we don't see mostly or partly sunny skies, then we'll likely see only hazy sunshine to start as the high clouds are the only types of clouds being called into question Thursday morning. Regardless of the clouds cover, it should stay dry through Thursday morning. As we roll into the afternoon and evening hours of your Thursday, the cloud deck will fill-in and thicken as an approaching surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico slides in from the south. Areas south and west of Evansville have the best chance of rain for Thursday, but anyone within the tri-state could see the rain if the GFS model verifies. If the WRF model verifies, the rain holds off until Thursday night. In past experience, rain events that are triggered primarily from over-running (warm air rising and sliding over a pool of cooler air with the lift associated with this dynamic helping to produce condensation and precipitation to occur) begin before any of the models indicate they will begin, OR we see the rain move in some time around when the model producing the earlier time of arrival scenario forecasts the rain to arrive. There is a 40% chance of precipitation Thursday, but I’m leaning towards increasing that chance depending upon the newer model data that becomes available before the noon newscast.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: Southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.