Forecast Insight For Thursday, October 29, 2009

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today we’re going to start the day with mostly to partly sunny skies as a weak area of high pressure finally cleared out the clouds last night. This afternoon into this evening, clouds will gradually build as showers and storms from a warm front rise in from the south. Eventually showers and maybe even a storm will move into the tri-state during the PM hours. The best chance of rain today will continue to be south and west of Evansville as originally forecasted, but the rest of the tri-state does have at least some chance of rain this afternoon or evening. There is an 80% chance of precipitation for your Thursday.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: Southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight a slow moving storm moving in from the west will begin to produce moderate to heavy rainfall with a few thunderstorms over, at least, the western and central portions of the tri-state. That said, the eastern third of the tri-state also needs to be on the lookout out for some rainfall. The storm will likely produce several hours of moderate to heavy rainfall for the western portion of the tri-state leading to some flooding concerns. There is a flash flood watch in effect for the Illinois portion of the viewing area beginning with this evening and extending through Saturday morning. There is an 80% chance of precipitation for tonight.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: South-southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow will primarily be a wet day, but the latest models are keeping this much drier for folks in the eastern part of the tri-state versus for those living in southern Illinois. As the cold front associated with this storm system approaches and moves through the tri-state Friday into Friday night, total rainfall amounts through Friday night for areas in the flash flood watch are projected to fall somewhere between 2 and 4 inches. The remainder of the tri-state will likely see amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range with locally higher amounts. The high temperature for tomorrow is difficult to forecast as there will be a potent southerly wind, but the warming effects from this flow will be offset by the lack of sunshine and rainfall. It is likely that the western portion of the tri-state will have a difficult time getting into the lower 70’s while the eastern portion of the tri-state has a better chance at the mid to upper 70’s based solely on less expectant rainfall through the AM hours over the eastern part of the viewing area. Again, flooding is a concern throughout the tri-state Thursday night through Friday night with the most likely threat for flooding situated over Illinois.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: South winds at 10 to 20 mph with wind gusts up to 25 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.