Forecast Insight For Friday, October 30, 2009

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today will be exceptionally wet with an extended period of shower activity throughout the AM and PM hours. An approaching cold front from the west is siphoning moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico to support itself, and will provide a flooding threat for the entire tri-state through Friday night. While the good news is that projected rainfall amounts through Saturday morning have decreased, there remains the potential for 1.5” to 3” of rain to fall across the Illinois portion of the viewing area, while the Kentucky and Indiana viewing areas can expect rainfall totals between 0.75” and 1.5” with locally higher amounts up to 2”. There is a 100% chance of precipitation for today, so no one will be missed by this rain event. While there is a tiny chance the rain will depart by sunset, we will most likely still be dealing with showers across the tri-state with a wide range in intensity between 5pm and 8pm this evening. Winds are another issue to address as surface winds will intensify with gusts up 30 mph near the cold front that’s forecasted to move through the tri-state today. Lastly, thunderstorms are possible today, but there is chance is at about 20%, and severe weather will not be a concern. Watch out for flooded roads this afternoon into tonight.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: South winds at 12 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight it is likely showers and isolated storms will linger throughout the tri-state as the north-south line of precipitation slowly trudges off to the east. Rainfall totals for the rain event are outlined in the “Today” section. Drier, cooler air will rush in from the west overnight as the rain exits. In fact, there could even be some clearing late tonight, but it appears the majority of the night will be at least mostly cloudy.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: West-southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow is looking much better than what it appeared on Wednesday. If clouds linger early into the sunrise period Saturday morning, the overcast sky will almost certainly break later in the morning. Rain is not expected for your Saturday. Temperatures will struggle to rise despite the anticipated sunshine because of the cool westerly flow. While there is a small chance it remains mostly cloudy for Saturday, I think the surface winds at 5 to 15 mph will be enough to result in a sufficient mixing of drier air into the low cloud deck to break up the clouds. Expect a mix of sun and clouds through the afternoon and evening. For trick-or-treaters, it’s looking dry in the evening, but the air will be chilly with temperatures falling through the 40’s.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: West winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.