Forecast Insight For Monday, November 2, 2009

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today is starting out with a sea of blue skies as dry air remaining from the weekend continues to dominate Monday morning’s weather. As we transition into the afternoon and evening, clouds will increase from the west due to an approaching cold front. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will result from our interaction with the frontal boundary, but rain showers should stay north of the viewing area. Winds ahead of the front will be light out of the southwest working in tandem with the sunshine to warm us into the 60’s. Winds will then turn to out of the west and then northwest following the passage of the front during the PM hours.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: Southwest winds to start before turning to out of the northwest this evening at 5 to 10 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight high pressure will move in behind this afternoon/evening’s cold front. This will result in rapidly clearing skies permitting the temperature to drop down to near 40 degrees. The normal low for Tuesday morning is 39.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: North-northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow looks like a pretty cut and dry forecast with plenty of sunshine as high pressure remains dominant across the tri-state. The center of surface circulation around the high pressure system will be situated to our west resulting in a light northerly flow throughout the day. Despite the sunshine, the northerly winds will suppress the daytime heating. The MOS models are very different considering we’re talking about a forecast only about 42 hours in the future from when the models were issued. I’m leaning heavily towards the cooler forecast given that the GFS skew-T model was showing a surface temperature closer to 50 degrees as opposed to its MOS counterpart going with 61. The NAM MOS and skew-T models are also in agreement with a high temperature in the lower 50’s.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: North winds at 5 to 10 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.