Forecast Insight For Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today is beginning cloudy as a low to mid level disturbance slides through the tri-state west to east. This moisture that is primarily representing itself as only cloud cover with isolated sprinkle or light shower activity is preceding a cold front that will move through the tri-state later this afternoon or evening. The forward movement of this moisture is quick enough that model data combined with satellite data suggests that we’ll see an ample amount of sunshine heading into the PM hours. While the modeled data hesitates to go with a sky flush with sunshine, a mostly sunny afternoon certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. There is a 10% chance of precipitation for your Wednesday, but this only applies to the early morning hours and for counties in the Indiana portion of the viewing area north of I-64. Given the vast amount of anticipated sunshine, my forecast high may need revising upward for the noon newscast.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: Southerly winds that will shift to more out of the west later in the day at 5 to 15 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight, high pressure behind the cold front that will move through the tri-state during the PM hours today will bring clear skies and relatively light winds. Temperatures should bottom out in the 30’s with normally colder parts of the tri-state at risk for some frost especially if winds are weaker than the forecasted 5 to10 mph.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow we will find ourselves behind a cold front and under the influence of high pressure. The high pressure system will help to preserve out clear skies throughout the day. Further, the air mass associated with the ridge (same thing as high pressure) is not Canadian in origin which means the temperatures tomorrow afternoon won’t be significantly cooler than today’s. The normal high for tomorrow is about 60 for Evansville, so a forecast high of 55 is still quite seasonable. Further, forecast highs this week have trended lower than actual highs, and given the abundant sunshine that’s expected for tomorrow along with 850mb temperatures in the 4 to 6 degrees Celsius range, a high temperature in the upper 50’s or closer to 60 wouldn’t surprise me.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: West-northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.