Forecast Insight For Monday, February 8, 2010

***A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES FROM 6PM CST/7PM CST UNTIL 12PM CST/1PM EST: DUBOIS, PERRY, HANCOCK, AND OHIO COUNTIES***

***A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MARTIN, DAVIESS(IN), AND MARTIN COUNTIES***

***A WINTER WEATHER ADIVSORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES WITH THE STARTING AND ENDING TIMES SPECIFIED:

FROM 12PM CST TODAY THROUGH 9AM CST TUESDAY: WAYNE, WHITE, AND GALLATIN COUNTIES...

FROM 6PM CST TODAY THROUGH NOON CST WEDNESDAY: EDWARDS, WABASH, GIBSON, PIKE, POSEY, VANDERBURGH, WARRICK, SPENCER, UNION, WEBSTER, HENDERSON, DAVIESS(KY), HOPKINS, MUHLENBERG,  AND MCLEAN COUNTIES...***

IN SPEAKING WITH THE NWS OFFICE IN PADUCAH, KY THIS MORNING AROUND 10:30AM CST, IT APPEARS SOME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS LATER TODAY. I WILL KEEP YOU POSTED ON THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE DAY ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today will end as it is starting for many folks throughout the Tri-state as a sheet of clouds builds in and thickens from the west. There have been some weak returns on radar this morning indicating some snow aloft, but there have been no reports at the surface suggesting any of this precipitation is reaching the ground. This seems reasonable given a moderately pronounced layer of dry air near the surface as a surface high pressure system is centered to our east. Temperatures today won’t skyrocket, but we will still manage to reach into the lower to mid 30’s with some areas possibly reaching into the upper 30’s. There is a 40% chance of precipitation for your Monday, as the dry surface layer will collapse and snowflakes will be permitted to reach the ground later this afternoon or this evening. That said, it’s unlikely we see much accumulation prior to sunset.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: East breezes at 3 to 6 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Weather conditions are forecasted to deteriorate overnight with snow showers becoming steadier and heavy at times. Since temperatures will be close to the freezing mark, the snow will be wet and heavy, and snowflakes will probably be rather large. There is a significant amount of forcing or lift (when you here about “forcing” or “lift,” they are virtually the same thing and are mechanisms that essentially drive precipitation or, in weaker instances, simply cloud cover) forecasted to develop overnight as two cores of upper level energy phase together over the Tri-state. There will probably be instances of heavy snow, but we’re mostly looking at light to moderate snow to fall over many hours tonight into tomorrow morning. Snowfall accumulations will be issued on a separate map through facebook and twitter later this morning. The majority of the Tri-state can expect 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches possible through tomorrow morning. The southeastern (Muhlenberg and Ohio counties… maybe parts of Hopkins, Mclean, Daviess, and Hancock counties as well) part of the Tri-state may see less snow as rain and/or freezing rain could mix in with the snow late tonight. There is a 100% chance of precipitation for your Wednesday night. This storm will not miss. Check the latest Winter Weather Advisory data on www.weather.gov.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: East breezes at 3 to 6 mph…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow morning will likely start cloudy with snow showers still falling across the Tri-state. It is still ambiguous as to when the snow finally gets out of the viewing area, but even if the snow showers linger throughout the morning and afternoon, only an additional inch of accumulation will be possible due to the snow’s weakened intensity. There is an 80% chance of precipitation for your Tuesday. Roads tomorrow morning will probably be slick in many areas, so use caution and call ahead to find out if you need to arrive at your destination. Temperatures will struggle to rise, if they rise at all, meaning minimal melting can be expected in most areas. Further, the pressure gradient on the backside of the storm as it departs tomorrow afternoon and evening will be notably tight resulting in windy condition developing through the PM hours. While the forecast currently calls for 25 mph wind gusts, a few local gusts up to 30 or even 35 mph wouldn’t surprise me, and I think I’ll adjust this part of the forecast for the noon newscast pending what the newer model data suggests. The main takeaway from tomorrow is to use caution and be safe. Since temperatures will be close to the freezing mark and the snow that will have fallen will be a wet snow, it shouldn’t be too tough to see the main roads cleared as long as they’re treated. Also, as the winds increase later Tuesday, blowing snow will become a concern, but it won’t be nearly as bad as if we saw a powdery snow Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: West-northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph… Gusts up to 25 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview: