Forecast Insight For Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today Ole’ Man Winter is dishing out more of the same with plenty of clouds, breezy conditions, unseasonably chilly air, and even a bit of snow. An upper level low centered over the Mid-Atlantic is helping to steer chilly air into the Tri-state along with grey skies and a few flurries. While the flurries and snow showers won’t be wide spread, there could be up to a coating some areas. Ultimately, there’s a 30% chance of precipitation for your Tuesday. Winds today will not be as bad as what the Tri-state endured Monday when wind gusts topped out at 28 mph at the airport in Evansville. Despite the breezy conditions, blowing snow isn’t expected to be as much of an issue as the snowpack has solidified since it first fell Sunday night or Monday morning. The normal high for today is 46 degrees meaning we’ll extend our streak of days with a high temperature below the seasonable mark to 22 days. If the 7-day forecast verifies, that streak could reasonably hit 28 days and counting.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: West winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight an impulse of upper level energy will come sliding down from the north as it wraps around a broader upper level low that, by this evening, t will be centered over New England and the Maritimes of Canada. There is a 20% chance of precipitation for your Tuesday night as a few flurries could come about from the upper level wave sliding down from the north. Temperatures tonight will be bolstered by generally cloudy skies and a light flow out of the west-northwest. Speaking of winds, tonight we’ll finally see winds calm to a level that won’t make for significantly colder wind chills.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: West-northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow there could still be a few flurries hanging around from the overnight hours. There’s a 20% chance of precipitation for your Wednesday. Otherwise, count on another cloudy day with plenty of cold air. While it will be breezy at times with sustained winds possibly reaching 15 mph, there winds won’t be as harsh as what we’re dealing with today, and certainly nothing like what we had to deal with Monday. Temperatures will continue to suffer as we have a set-up of high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east. This pattern typically produces colder than average temperatures, and tomorrow will be no different. With all this negativity, there is some good that will be possible for Wednesday. The storm associated with a core of low pressure to our east will be moving away and drier air associated with high pressure to our west will be moving in. The end result is some possible clearing during the PM hours. The latest upper-air models hold on to low-level moisture throughout tomorrow, but when drier air is moving in, the models have had a tendency to maintain the low clouds longer than they persist in reality.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: West-northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.