Forecast Insight For Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Today we started with a cold front flying in from the north and west and the rest is history. Snow showers strengthened over the Tri-state this morning bringing accumulating snowfall to roadways and grassy surface to the tune of a quarter to a half inch. Some areas may have seen slightly more or less. Along with the snow, the storm system also ushered in even colder air than what we witnessed yesterday (the high at the airport in Evansville hit 36 yesterday afternoon) as well as a biting, northwest wind. Already this morning we’ve seen a wind gust reach 25 mph in Evansville and several locations around the Tri-state reporting 20 to 25 mph gusts. As we head through the afternoon and evening hours, snow flurries will continue to fly, but no additional accumulations are expected. Also, more clouds than sunshine are anticipated as an upper level low sits virtually right on top of us. There is a 30% chance of precipitation through the rest of the day. Winds will make it feels like it’s in the teens and lower 20’s through the rest of your Wednesday.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: Northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight the upper level low associated with the cold snap we were forced to endure today will start to peel away to the east. That said, the northwest flow aloft will continue to wrap in mostly cloudy skies into the lower levels of the atmosphere. Winds will also remain noticeable throughout the overnight with sustained winds topping out as high as 15 mph, though I would suspect for the majority of the overnight winds will fall in the 5 to 10 mph range. There is also a 20% chance of non-accumulating flurries to go along with the cloudy skies. Fortunately we have cloudy skies and some sort of a wind at the surface as that will prevent the temperatures from falling down closer to 10 degrees as opposed to the 20 degrees forecasted. That said, the wind is sort of a catch 22. If we have it, there’s some mixing in the lower atmosphere that occurs which helps to slow the rate of cooling, but on the flip side there’s a wind chill that makes it feel colder anyway. Be prepared for AccuWeather RealFeel temperatures in the single digits and lower teens when you wake up Thursday morning.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: Northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow could start mostly cloudy as the upper air models along with the MOS statistical models are both anticipating this dreary start. Regardless clouds are forecasted to break later in the day (the exact time is actually very difficult to predict), but it’s looking favorable for some sunshine for your Thursday midday. First, there is drier air that will be better permitted to surge in from the west as the upper level low responsible for our grey Wednesday and Wednesday night will be a little further to the east. Second, there will be a moderate flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere where the cloud deck is anticipated to be which will help encourage some mixing which will lead to some clearing. While clearing tomorrow isn’t guaranteed as I mentioned on FOX 7 news and noon, the chance of some substantial sunshine developing tomorrow is at about 80%. I’m pretty confident that sunshine will happen. While it won’t be as windy or as cold during the midday hours, the forecast high in the mid 30’s is about 15 degrees below the average high in Evansville for the day, and the winds out of the northwest at up to 15 mph sustained will make it feel like we’re in the 20’s. Some day spring will arrive. The MREF model doesn’t project any significant warming over the next two weeks.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: Northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.

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