Forecast Insight For Thursday, February 25, 2010

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

It’s like forecasting for San Diego, California except without all of the comfort. One day after another seems the same and you begin to wonder why you’re even needed to forecast the weather in the first place. Day after day after day I’ve been spitting out blogs that tell folks it’s going to be cold with below normal temperatures, and, more often than not, expect a lot of clouds. Today will be similar, especially to start, as overcast skies and low temperatures on the order of 5 to 10 degrees below normal kick off the day. Winds this morning are making it feel like it’s in the teens and the sporadic breezes won’t be letting up through the rest of your Thursday. As far as the clouds go, there is some good news to report there (if you’re a fan of sunshine like me). The broad area of low pressure centered to our east will push away from us bit by bit as the day goes on. This will help to allow drier air to the west get into the Tri-state and the clouds to eventually break. As of 11am CST, there remained a mostly cloudy, almost overcast, set up in Evansville. That said, visible satellite imagery looks good for some clearing in areas that haven’t seen much later this afternoon. While temperatures will fall well shy of normal highs near 50 across the Tri-state, it will still be warmer than yesterday when we only managed a high of 30 at the airport in Evansville.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: Northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight we will see dry air achieve a stranglehold on the Tri-state allowing for clear skies through daybreak Friday. Winds will also weaken drastically. The weak winds and clear skies are going to allow the temperatures across the area to drop down close to the dew point which will be in the lower to mid teens. Typically the clear skies, calm winds scenario results in a low temperature that’s lower than the models’ expectations. The only time I’m hesitant not to forecast below what the models are calling for in this situation is if the light flow is out of the south in some capacity. It’s surprising how well a light, southerly flow can actually buoy the temperature several degrees late at night. Then again, that’s more of a trend that I’ve noticed and not necessarily a rule.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: Northwest breezes at 3 to 6 mph, otherwise expect calm winds…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow will be pretty simple with high pressure to the northwest helping to bring about very sunny skies region-wide. There may be a few clouds here and there, but sunshine will rule your Friday. As for winds, well, they’re not looking too great. With winds expected to reach 10 to 20 mph sustained, wind chills will still be a factor and will offset, if not completely negate, the apparent warming sensation we get with the sun. Remember to bundle up Friday in case those winds become a little too aggressive to ignore.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: Northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.