Forecast Insight For Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Today:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

This morning, an area of low pressure centered over the Panhandle of Florida was bringing widespread rain to the Deep South as well as Tennessee. Some showers or flurries may have nudged their way into the southern rim of the Tri-state last night or early this morning, but our main takeaway from the storm has been, and still is, an impressive shield of high cloud cover. If this were the only player present, we’d be enjoying plenty of hazy sunshine. However, we’re also wrangling with a stubborn deck of low clouds that the models were split on whether or not they’d be forming this morning. Therefore, I went with a mix of sun and clouds for a forecast, but as with any rendezvous with low clouds, nothing is certain. There’s still a chance for some midday clearing as the storm system to our south pushes further to the east taking the majority of its moisture with it, but the low clouds are still being projected in the models. It appears these low clouds built into the Evansville area around 7am CST this morning, so we did have something close to clear skies for a few hours prior to sunrise. Alas, sunshine may be too much to ask for. Temperatures today are based on seeing at least some sunshine, which is still possible but not as likely as I suggested on air. Regardless, it’s going to be a struggle to get out of the 30’s with all the cloud cover combined with a stiff northerly wind. Speaking of the wind, the moderate breeze at the surface could encourage enough mixing to break apart the low clouds later in the day, but the winds are only marginally strong enough at 5 to 15 mph at the surface. Maybe if we had gusts pushing 25 to 30 mph, I’d be more optimistic about some wind-driven clearing. Despite all this talk about clouds, precipitation is not expected for today.

Forecasted High Temperature

Today’s Wind Forecast: North winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Tonight:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tonight a weak upper level trough will move down into the Tri-state from the northwest. The main impact will be a mainly cloudy overnight. There is some limited precipitation showing up on the models, but I can’t stress enough how limited our possibility for precipitation really is. This is a moisture starved system only prompting me to issue a 20% chance of precipitation in the form of snow flurries, and even that, I feel, may be giving this storm too much credit. No snow accumulations are expected as the worst that could probably happen is the development of a few wet roads. Temperatures tonight will also drop back below freezing despite the mainly cloudy skies as the upper level wave will bring with it a weak reinforcing shot of cooler air.

Forecasted Low Temperature

Tonight’s Wind Forecast: North winds at 4 to 8 mph…

Tomorrow:

Synopsis of Weather Conditions:

Tomorrow will probably start cloudy as the upper level trough that moved in Tuesday night continues to assert its influence on the Tri-state. High temperatures Wednesday will likely be the coolest we experience this week as a high in the upper 30’s will put us 10 to 15 degrees below the normal high of 51. The newest WRF computer model issued earlier this morning is spitting out a tiny chance (probably close to 10%) for some morning snow flurries. It’s tough to figure out what exactly is going to happen through tomorrow afternoon and evening as the models are signaling some decreasing saturation in the lower levels of the atmosphere, but whether or not this will actually lead to a substantially clearing sky is a tough call. Winds tomorrow won’t be the strongest, but if we find the sustained winds at the surface continuously reaching at least 10 mph, there’s a better chance for some clearing during the PM hours. Despite tomorrow likely ending up as a grey, chilly day, sunshine and a warming trend will move back into the region for Thursday and Friday.

Forecasted High Temperature

Tomorrow’s Wind Forecast: North-northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph…

Extended Forecast Overview:

*What someone deems to be unseasonably warm or unseasonably cool is entirely subjective and also depends on the typical temperature variability of any given location. For the purposes of the chart above, unseasonably warm will be defined as having a high temperature greater than 10 degrees above the seasonable average for that day at KEVV (The Evansville Regional Airport). Likewise, unseasonably cool will be defined as having a high temperature 10 degrees below the seasonable average for that day at KEVV.

**It’s important to note that Ron’s temperature forecasts may significantly differ with the other forecasts from time to time. There are two reasons for this. First, Ron is working with older model data than myself when I come in during the morning hours and produce my forecast. Model forecasts can vary significantly between issuances. Second, Ron may see reasonable meteorological evidence to vary his forecast significantly from the models and myself. His forecast is added to the temperature forecast grids to provide additional perspective into the forecast.